As it hosts the G20 meeting, India's growing geopolitical influence will be put to the test.
India has vowed to prioritize developing nations' issues and ensure that they are not left behind as the G20's host nation this year.
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India's prime minister invited 125 largely poor nations to a virtual gathering in January to show New Delhi's commitment to be their advocate on the international stage before India hosted the G20 summit of leading economies.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned many pressing issues that, in his view, could be better tackled if developing nations had a larger role in the new global order, including the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, terrorism, and the conflict in Ukraine.
"The world is in a state of crisis," Modi declared. "The Global South did not originate the majority of the world's problems. But we feel the effects more.
India has vowed to amplify the voice of the so-called Global South, which is made up of a large number of primarily developing nations in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, Oceania, and the Caribbean, many of which were once colonial powers.
This week's arrival of international leaders in New Delhi for the G20 meeting, which starts on Saturday, will put that promise to the test. India, however, has marketed itself as a bridge to the poor world as well as a rising global power and, most significantly, as a go-between for the West and Russia.
India will have to perform a "diplomatic high-wire act" to navigate divisions among the various political blocs over Russia's conflict in Ukraine, according to Milan Vaishnav, head of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Russia and China have vetoed language on the conflict that they once agreed to during last year's summit in Indonesia, when the summit statement highlighted that "most members strongly condemned" the invasion. As a result, none of the numerous G20 meetings this year have resulted in a communique.
According to John Kirton, director and creator of the G20 Research Group, if leaders don't resolve this impasse over the weekend, the summit of the group may end without a communique for the first time in its history, which would be a historic defeat for the organization.
Both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be present. Both parties are sending delegates.
Modi is in a challenging diplomatic situation because of New Delhi's longstanding links to Moscow, its burgeoning relationship with the West, and its animosity against Beijing over a protracted border conflict.
Russia, India's Cold War ally, has long been a source of military hardware and, more lately, record supplies of inexpensive oil. India has refrained from publicly denouncing Russia over the conflict, but the West and its allies have aggressively courted India in the hopes that it will act as a check on China's expanding aspirations.
Modi recently received special treatment from U.S. President Joe Biden as the two of them inked a number of agreements; he was also recently invited to the G7 conference and served as a guest of honor at France's Bastille Day parade.
"Is Prime Minister Modi as capable and dedicated to finding a means to create a communique as President Widodo of Indonesia was last year? Given the development of Russia's assault on Ukraine, that is more of an open subject, according to Kirton.
India has concentrated on concerns impacting developing countries, such as food and fuel insecurity, increasing inflation, debt, and reforms of international development banks, as the disagreement over Ukraine throws a shadow over the G20. Modi has also suggested that the African Union join the G20 as a permanent member in an effort to broaden its appeal.
According to Happymon Jacob, founder of the New Delhi-based Council for Strategic and Defense Research, while many G20 countries want to concentrate on criticizing Russia, the Ukraine crisis is not as important to developing countries as they are coping with regional conflicts and severe weather occurrences.
"There's a perception (in the Global South) that developed countries and forums like the G20 do not take conflicts in other parts of the world, be it Afghanistan, Myanmar, or Africa," Jacob added.
The number of nations actively denouncing Russia dropped from 131 to 122, according to a survey from the Economist Intelligence Unit published in March, suggesting rising support for Moscow from the developing world.
"Some emerging economies have shifted to a neutral position," the report said.
According to the report, there are now 35 nations that have a pro-Russian slant, up from 29 the previous year. This alliance had expanded to include South Africa, Mali, and Burkina Faso, demonstrating Moscow's expanding sway over the continent. China continued to be the most noticeable of the nations with a pro-Russian stance.
As India's economy develops, it is welcomed by Western nations but also sees itself as a counterweight to China in the race for influence in the developing world, where it has longstanding relations, according to Jacob.
Since Jawaharlal Nehru, India's first prime minister, the statement "India identifies with the Global South" has been used repeatedly. However, Modi has recently increased the focus on the phrase.India is attempting to prevent the Global South from joining the Chinese side, according Jacob.
India, according to Vaishnav, is in "a geopolitical sweet spot." As the West matures, it has one of the largest working-age populations, one of the fastest-growing economies among major nations, and a neutral posture on the Ukraine crisis that has only increased its diplomatic influence at the G20. In front of a pivotal general election next year, Modi's popularity may benefit from the limelight on the world stage.
On the other hand, hundreds of millions of people continue to struggle to find job in the nation's sizable but persistently unequal economy. And while Modi champions democratic ideals overseas, detractors charge that his Hindu nationalist administration suppresses dissent, incites religious violence, and undermines independent institutions at home.
According to Vaishnav, Modi has so far encouraged the idea that given the geopolitical situation, the world needs India just as much as it needs the rest of the world.
There could be some diplomatic implications, he added, if domestic turmoil causes businesses and governments to begin hedging their bets and India is no longer perceived as being effective in containing China.
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